How It Works | Stock Liga PRO

🧠

The Problem With Football

...or more precisely, the problem with how we measure it

After 90 minutes of blood, sweat, and tactical genius, football boils everything down to three numbers: Win, Draw, or Loss. That's it. That's the entire story your league table tells.

But you know that's not the whole story. You've watched your team dominate for 88 minutes, hit the post twice, earn 12 corners, keep 68% possession — only to concede from a fluky deflection and walk away with nothing. Meanwhile, the team that parked the bus, committed 18 fouls, and had one shot all game takes home all three points.

Stock Liga fixes this. We track over 40 different performance metrics from every single match, run them through a transparent algorithm, and produce a single number that tells you exactly how well a team actually played — regardless of what the scoreboard says.

The scoreboard shows who won. Stock Liga shows who deserved to.

— The founding principle

Every team starts with a baseline value of 1,000 points. After each match, that value goes up or down based on actual performance. Over a season, the teams that consistently play well — not just win — rise to the top.

🏟️ Traditional League Table

3

factors: Win, Draw, Loss

→

📈 Stock Liga

40+

factors per match, per team

⚽

Offensive Factors

How attacking quality translates into stock value

Not all goals are created equal. A 30-pass team goal that splits a defence wide open? Beautiful. A penalty awarded after a questionable dive? Not quite the same. Stock Liga knows the difference.

Factor	Points	Why?
🎯 Goal (Open Play)	+12	The gold standard. You broke down an organised defence with skill, movement, and teamwork. Take a bow.
📐 Goal (Set Piece)	+10	Corners, free kicks, throw-ins worked on the training ground. Valuable and tactical, but more structured.
🥅 Goal (Penalty)	+6	You still scored, but let's be honest — often it's the opponent who made the mistake, not you who created the magic.
🤦 Goal (Own Goal by opponent)	+4	You got lucky. The other team's defender did your job for you. Minimal credit.
📺 Disallowed Goal (VAR)	+4	You did beat the keeper. The fact that someone's armpit was offside doesn't erase the quality of the move.
🎯 Shot on Target	+1	You made the keeper work. Every shot on target shows you're creating real danger.
💨 Shot off Target	+0.3	At least you tried. Shows attacking intent even if the execution was... well, let's not talk about it.
🚩 Corner Won	+0.5	You pushed them back into their box. Pressure indicator — corners don't come from nowhere.
🔑 Key Pass	+0.8	A pass that directly creates a shot. You're not just passing sideways — you're unlocking defences.
💃 Successful Dribble	+0.4	You beat your man. Individual skill that makes the crowd gasp and defenders reconsider their career choices.

💡 Why the goal hierarchy matters: A team winning 1-0 from a 90th-minute penalty (+6) earns far less offensive credit than a team winning 1-0 with a flowing team goal (+12). The scoreboard says the same thing. Stock Liga doesn't.

🛡️

Defensive Factors

The art of not letting the ball go in the net

Defence wins championships — and Stock Liga stock value. Conceding goals tanks your rating, but we also recognise the difference between a defensive masterclass and a lucky escape.

Factor	Points	Why?
💥 Goal Conceded (Open Play)	−10	Your defence was properly breached. The opponent earned this one and you couldn't stop it.
📐 Goal Conceded (Set Piece)	−8	You knew it was coming from a corner or free kick and still couldn't deal with it. Slightly less damaging — set pieces are harder to defend.
⚖️ Goal Conceded (Penalty)	−5	Often unlucky — a harsh call, a clumsy challenge. Lower penalty because it's less about your defensive system failing.
🤦 Goal Conceded (Own Goal)	−10	You literally scored against yourself. A goal conceded is a goal conceded, no matter who put it in.
📺 Goal Saved by VAR	−3	You were beaten. The referee's assistant with a TV screen saved you, not your back four. Small penalty applies.
🎯 Shot on Target Faced	−0.5	Every shot on target your keeper faces is a moment your defence let you down.
🚩 Corner Conceded	−0.4	You're under pressure. The opponent is knocking at your door.

🧤

Bonus Unlocked

+8

Clean Sheet Bonus

Concede zero goals from all sources (open play + set piece + penalty + own goal = 0) and your team earns a massive +8 bonus. This rewards teams that don't just survive — they shut the door.

⚠️ Own goals break clean sheets. If your defender slices one into his own net, your team loses the clean sheet bonus. A goal is a goal, even when you do it to yourself.

⚖️

Discipline Factors

Play fair or pay the price

Every foul chips away at your stock value. Every card hurts more. Stock Liga rewards teams that play the game rather than hack at ankles. Tactical fouling is a tactic — but it comes at a cost.

Factor	Points	Why?
🤚 Foul Committed	−0.5	Each one adds up. Commit 20 fouls and you've lost 10 points before anything else happens.
🟡 Yellow Card	−3	Significant misconduct. The referee decided your challenge was worth a booking.
🟡🟡 Second Yellow → Red	−8	You didn't learn the first time. Now you're down to 10 men and your team pays the price.
🟥 Straight Red Card	−12	Maximum misconduct. Whatever you did, it was bad enough to go straight off. Brutal penalty.
⛔ Penalty Conceded	−4	A critical error in the box — whether a clumsy tackle or a handball. This is on top of any resulting goal.

🕊️

Bonus Unlocked

+5

Fair Play Bonus

Commit 5 or fewer fouls in the entire match AND receive zero cards (no yellows, no reds), and your team earns +5 bonus points. It's rare. It's beautiful. It's the football equivalent of a gentleman's handshake.

🎮

Control Factors

Who actually ran the show?

Possession, passing accuracy, tackles won — these tell you who was in charge. A team that dominates the ball and wins their duels is playing well, even if the goals don't come. Stock Liga rewards the process, not just the outcome.

Factor	Points	Why?
⚽ Possession >60%	+3	You controlled the game. The opponent spent most of their time chasing shadows.
👑 Possession >70%	+5	Total dominance. This replaces the 60% bonus — you don't get both.
🧵 Pass Completion >85%	+2	Technical excellence. Your passes actually reach your teammates — not the other side.
💪 Tackle Won	+0.3	You stopped them and kept the ball. Active, positive defensive work.
🧠 Interception	+0.3	You read the game. Intercepting a pass shows intelligence and positioning.
⚔️ Duels Won >55%	+2	You're winning more individual battles than you're losing. Physical and mental dominance.

📊 Possession Tier System

50–59%

No Bonus

Normal possession split — nothing special

60–69%

+3 Points

Dominant — you're clearly controlling the match

70%+

+5 Points

Complete control — the opponent can barely breathe

🎭

Context Factors

Because football doesn't happen in a vacuum

Where you play, when you score, and the narrative of the match all matter. A last-minute winner hits different from a 12th-minute opener. Coming from behind shows character. Blowing a lead shows... well, the opposite.

Factor	Value	Why?
✈️ Away Multiplier	×1.15	Playing away is harder — hostile crowd, unfamiliar pitch, long travel. Your positive points get a 15% boost. (Negative points stay unchanged — we don't punish away losses extra.)
🔥 Comeback Achieved	+5	You were losing and clawed your way back to a draw or win. Mental steel.
😰 Lead Blown	−5	You were winning and let it slip. Bottle merchants. Negative mental fortitude.
⏱️ Late Goal Scored (80'+)	+3	Clutch. When legs are tired and minds are fading, you found the net. That's elite mentality.
😱 Late Goal Conceded (80'+)	−3	You couldn't see it out. Ten minutes from the finish and your concentration lapsed.

🔄 The same match can feature BOTH a comeback and a blown lead. If Team A goes 1-0 up, then Team B scores twice to win 2-1: Team A blows a lead (−5), Team B achieves a comeback (+5). The drama writes itself.

✈️ How the Away Multiplier Works

The 1.15× multiplier applies only to positive points. This means away teams get rewarded for performing well, but don't get punished extra for poor performances.

POSITIVE PTS

+40.0

× 1.15 = +46.0

NEGATIVE PTS

−15.0

unchanged

NET RESULT

+31.0

vs +25.0 at home

🎉

Entertainment Factors

Because football is supposed to be fun

Here's something different: entertainment bonuses go to both teams. Yes, even the side that lost 4-3 gets credit for contributing to an absolute spectacle. Football is entertainment first, and Stock Liga rewards the show.

Factor	Points	Why?
🔥 High-Scoring Match (4+ total goals)	+3 each team	Goals are entertainment. Both teams helped create a match worth watching.
🤯 High-Scoring Match (6+ total goals)	+5 each team	Absolute thriller. Replaces the 4+ bonus — you don't stack them.
🔄 Lead Changed	+2 each team	Each time the lead changes hands, both teams earn +2. Drama and tension incarnate.

🏟️ Even an 8-0 loss earns entertainment points. Yes, Sheffield United got +5 entertainment bonus even while being demolished by Newcastle. They contributed to a match that made headlines. Stock Liga has a sense of humour about these things.

🧮

Worked Examples

See the algorithm in action with real scenarios

📖 Example 1: "The Quality 0-0"

The match that inspired the tagline. Both teams draw 0-0 and each gets 1 league point. But were they really equal?

FUL

Fulham

vs

CRY

Crystal Palace

0 – 0

Fulham (Home)

🎮 62% possession +3.0

🎯 6 shots on target +6.0

🚩 8 corners won +4.0

🔑 12 key passes +9.6

🧵 85%+ pass accuracy +2.0

🧤 Clean sheet bonus +8.0

🕊️ Fair play (4 fouls, 0 cards) +5.0

🎯 2 shots faced −1.0

Stock Change +36.6

Crystal Palace (Away)

🎯 2 shots on target +2.0

🚩 3 corners won +1.5

🔑 6 key passes +4.8

🧤 Clean sheet bonus +8.0

✈️ Away multiplier on positives ×1.15

🎯 6 shots faced −3.0

🚩 8 corners conceded −3.2

Stock Change +12.5

📖 Example 2: "The Meaningless Win"

Team A scrapes a 1-0 win with a 90th-minute penalty after being outplayed for the entire match. The league table says: 3 points, job done. Stock Liga tells a very different story.

A

Team A

vs

B

Team B

1 – 0

Team A (Home) — WINNER

🥅 1 penalty goal +6.0

⏱️ Late goal scored +3.0

🎯 3 shots on target +3.0

🧤 Clean sheet +8.0

🤚 9 fouls committed −4.5

🟡 2 yellow cards −6.0

🎯 8 shots faced −4.0

Stock Change +5.5

Team B (Away) — LOSER

🎯 8 shots on target +8.0

🎮 62% possession +3.0

🧵 87% pass accuracy +2.0

✈️ Away multiplier ×1.15

⛔ Penalty conceded −4.0

💥 1 goal conceded (pen) −5.0

😱 Late goal conceded −3.0

Stock Change +1.0

⚙️

How The Calculation Works

From raw match data to a single stock value — step by step

After every match, the engine runs through these steps for each team. The whole process takes milliseconds, but the insight it produces took months of design.

1

Load Data

40+ stats from the match

2

Apply Weights

Each stat × its point value

3

Separate ±

Split positive & negative

4

Away Boost

×1.15 on positives only

5

Net Change

Final Δ to stock value

🔍 Full Transparency: Every single factor weight is publicly documented. There's no black box, no hidden formula. You can take any match, apply the weights yourself, and arrive at exactly the same number we do. That's the whole point — Stock Liga is trustworthy because it's verifiable.

🏆 Quick Bonus Reference

🧤

+8

Clean Sheet

0 goals conceded

🕊️

+5

Fair Play

≤5 fouls, 0 cards

🔥

+5

Comeback

Was losing, drew/won

👑

+5

70%+ Possession

Complete control

🎉

+5

6+ Goals Match

Both teams get it

😰

−5

Lead Blown

Was winning, drew/lost

❓

Frequently Asked Questions

Everything you wanted to ask (and a few things you didn't)

Absolutely. If a team dominates possession, creates 15 key passes, wins their duels, and loses 1-0 from a freak deflection — they'll likely still gain value. The loss costs them (goals conceded hurt), but their overall quality still shines through. Stock Liga rewards how you played, not just the result.

Technically possible, but rare. Imagine winning 1-0 via penalty (only +6), while committing 20 fouls (−10), receiving 4 yellows (−12), conceding 12 corners (−4.8), facing 10 shots (−5), and so on. The negatives could theoretically outweigh the single goal. But scoring a goal is usually enough to offset most negatives.

Every team starts at 1,000. A well-performing team after 5 matches might sit around 1,100–1,200. An elite team dominating the league could be 1,300+. A struggling team might drop below 900. Over a full season, the spread becomes dramatic — just like real stock markets.

An open play goal requires you to break through an organised defence with passing, movement, skill, and finishing. A penalty is often awarded because the opponent made an error in the box. The scoring team's contribution is different. We still reward penalties (+6 is nothing to sneeze at), but the premium goes to goals that show real attacking quality.

Only the positive points get multiplied by 1.15. Negative points stay exactly the same. This means a good away performance gets a nice bonus, but a bad one isn't punished extra. The logic: it's harder to play well away from home (hostile crowd, travel, unfamiliar conditions), so when you do, you deserve extra credit.

Divergence is the gap between a team's league table position and their Stock Liga position. If a team is 8th in the league but 3rd in Stock Liga, they have a positive divergence of +5 — meaning they're performing much better than their results show. These are the "hidden gems" — teams whose quality isn't reflected in the standings yet. Over time, performance tends to catch up to results (or vice versa), making divergence a powerful predictive signal.

No. xG measures the probability of a shot becoming a goal based on location, body part, and angle. It's one metric. Stock Liga uses 40+ factors across six categories — offense, defence, discipline, control, context, and entertainment. We capture things xG completely ignores: fair play, comebacks, late goals, away difficulty, possession dominance, and the entertainment value of a match. Think of xG as a single instrument. Stock Liga is the whole orchestra.

Yes — and they're configurable. The current weights represent extensive testing and calibration, but the system is designed to evolve. Weights can be adjusted through backtesting against historical data. The key principle is transparency: whatever the weights are, they're publicly documented. No secrets.